A Future Without War? It’s More Likely than You Think

Norwegian researchers predict that the world could see the number of wars halve by 2050. But the outlook is not rosy for everyone.

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THOMAS SAMSON/AFP/Getty Images
THOMAS SAMSON/AFP/Getty Images

A woman holds a "peace" sign as pro-Israeli supporters take part in a demonstration called by French Jewish associations on November 20, 2012 in Paris.

There’s war in Afghanistan, a crisis in the Gaza Strip and percolating conflicts across sub-Saharan Africa. But for politicial scientists, that’s actually the good news.

The fact is, global conflicts have been on a downward trend for the last half-century. And now, a group of researchers in Norway says their data indicates that the future could be even more peaceful.

In a paper soon to be published in International Studies Quarterly, Håvard Hegre, a professor of political science at the University of Oslo, claims that the number of ongoing conflicts will be halved by 2050 — with the greatest decrease coming in the Middle East.

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Hegre, along with his colleagues at the Peace Research Institute Oslo, put together a statistical model that took into account factors such as infant mortality, education, youth population, ethnic make-up and conflict history. They ran the conflict simulation program 18,000 times before drawing conclusions.

The group focused on internal armed conflicts between governments and organized groups; as Hegre tells TIME, “internal armed conflicts kill more people and last longer.” While the general trend shows a tendency towards peace, it’s not all good news. Owing to development factors and conflict histories, some countries will see a greater risk of conflict as time goes by. Between now and 2017, India, Ethiopia, the Philippines, Uganda and Burma will all be at greatest risk of internal conflict. By 2050 that list will narrow down to India, Nigeria, Sudan, Ethiopia and Tanzania.

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Regionally, all continents should expect to see a decline in the risk of conflict, except for sub-Saharan Africa, a region that will be home to 41% of the world’s youth population in less than three generations’ time.

Given the carnage on your average evening news broadcast, the idea that humans are resisting our violent impulses would appear to be a fantasy. However, despite the apparent prevalence of war, it is in fact in decline. In 1992 every fourth country was involved in an armed conflict; by 2009 that number had fallen to every sixth country.

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The question that remains unanswered is why. Hegre explains that while it is difficult to emphasize one factor over another, education is key. “India is on the list because it is so large and it has a history of conflict in the North, but if they made an effort to expand education, they will reduce their risk of armed conflict,” says Hegre.

Another factor is economic development. Europe, despite its current economic troubles, is nevertheless still at low risk for armed conflict. This is because “developed economies tend to have invested a lot in exchange between different networks,” explains Hegre, “violence destroys those networks.” In other words, the more you have to lose, the less appealing war is.

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What is missing from the study, Hegre acknowledges, is the consideration of the existing political conditions within a country. When the study was first completed in 2009, researchers predicted the Middle East to be at a low risk for war. The Arab Spring, however, changed that equation by upending many of the region’s governmental systems. “We underestimated the risk of conflict in the Middle East because we didn’t see how dependent middle income countries are on the nature of political systems,” says Hegre. He is hoping to focus on expanding on this in future studies.

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8 comments
JohnB9900
JohnB9900

WWII was caused by debt.  When you rob a country blind, then lend them money to bail them out, then tell entire nations they are debt slaves forever...the end result is war.


The only reason we are not neck deep in blood from WW3 is because nuclear weapons have kept the peace, for now.

MariaNb
MariaNb

War only brings destruction and does not help anyone.Let us try to live in peace in a world full of light and joy.San Diego jewelry store

RobertSF
RobertSF

While I believe the basic premise, the article is a little muddled. "Internal conflicts" are not usually called "wars." They are called "civil wars." War is a term usually used for armed conflicts between nations. I believe wars are on the decline because war has gotten too expensive for most countries. On the other hand, I think civil uprisings will increase as capitalism worldwide becomes more and more ruthless, creating greater economic inequality.

PlumbLine
PlumbLine

The reality is, according to Jesus Christ, is that wars and desolations will increase in the end times, and culminate in the Battle of Armegeddon in the Middle East as the nations come against Israel and one another.......

Mark 13:19-20....19 For there will be greater anguish in those days than at any time since God created the world. And it will never be so great again. 20 In fact, unless the Lord shortens that time of calamity, not a single person will survive. But for the sake of his chosen ones he has shortened those days.

PG_Kane
PG_Kane

@PlumbLine 

Yes, but what does DC Comics have to say about all this? I ask because one work of fiction is just as valid as the next in predicting real world outcomes.

em4rtz
em4rtz

@PlumbLine Which is why there is a growing a population of atheist.. you religious zealots are the more than half the reason for such wars. Here's to hoping for a future of peace & and one without the likes of you nut bags. 

PlumbLine
PlumbLine

@em4rtz @PlumbLine James 4:1-3Pride Promotes Strife........4 Where do wars and fights come from among you? Do they not come from your desires for pleasure that war in your members? 2 You lust and do not have. You murder and covet and cannot obtain. You fight and war.

epitygxanwn
epitygxanwn

@em4rtz @PlumbLine No, that "growing population of atheists" will diminish rapidly after a couple more decades of global warming. Yes, even if you don't believe in the prophecies of the Book of Revelation, you should believe that thanks to global warming toasting the biosphere, the four horsemen of the apocalypse will visit us very soon now, putting a bitter end to this dream of worldwide peace. Faminse, pestilence and war are about to return with a vengeance.